AIDS STATISTICS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE -- BUT NOT FOR ALL

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AIDS STATISTICS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE -- BUT NOT FOR ALL.

Not only are AIDS death rates declining (see JW Apr 1 1997, p. 53 or MMWR 1997; 46:165); incidence is down as well. CDC data indicate that, compared with 1995, overall incidence of AIDS declined 6 percent in 1996, making 1996 the first year since 1981 without an increase in AIDS cases.

The 1996 decline was due mostly to sharp decreases of the disease in white men, especially those whose risk was homosexual sex. Among Hispanic and black men whose reported risk was heterosexual sex, incidence actually climbed 13 and 19 percent, respectively. Incidence in women was 2 percent higher in 1996 than in 1995.

A separate analysis shows that women now account for almost 20 percent of new AIDS cases yearly. While female cases ascribed to drug use are beginning to decline, cases from heterosexual contact continue to increase (up 7 percent in 1996 from 1995 according to the CDC), particularly among 15- to 24-year-old women. Once seen primarily in the Northeast, AIDS in women is now diagnosed nationwide, especially in the South. More than 75 percent of 1995 cases occurred in black or Hispanic women.

Comment: The 1996 declines in AIDS incidence and mortality reflect both the power of the new HIV drugs and efforts at disease prevention. Still, many subgroups are not benefiting equally from these interventions. The particular need for disease prevention efforts among very young, heterosexual, non-drug using women is clear.

— A Zuger

Published in Journal Watch General Medicine September 30, 1997